Wk 1 · 2026
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans — Sun, Sep 13
Sun, Sep 13 ·
Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX
· CBS FINAL
Weather
This one is played indoors. There is nothing to forecast.
at
1:00pET
BUF -1.5 · total 44.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential BUF by 1.4
What is at stake
An AFC game between two divisions. It decides neither division, but conference record is the tiebreaker that follows head-to-head, and both of these are chasing the same 7 AFC playoff places. Division standings.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The Gridiron King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
1.7 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two rosters that have
been through a draft and a free-agency window since.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense
Defense
Points / game
Points allowed / game
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The Gridiron King’s 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats
The box-score store these rows are built from has not been produced for this league yet, so no preview carries points and yards for and against. The form, trend and series blocks below are built from this site’s own files and are not affected.
Bills form
W 37-34at LARL 26-29vs NEW 24-16vs LACW 41-31vs DETW 36-31at HOU
2026 season
Texans form
W 26-3at TENL 30-34vs DALL 17-19at INDL 6-20vs CINL 31-36vs BUF
2026 season
Bills this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Texans this season
Straight up1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Against the spread1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 3
| Opponent | Bills | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Chargers AFC | vs W 24-16 preview | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
| Ravens AFC | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Packers NFC | at Wk 14 · scheduled preview | at Wk 17 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Texans leads 7–4 · Bills won the last one
11 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
0.1 points toward Bills
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-09-13 | Bills 36 — 31 Texans | at HOU | Bills |
| 2025 | 2025-11-20 | Bills 19 — 23 Texans | at HOU | Texans |
| 2024 | 2024-10-06 | Bills 20 — 23 Texans | at HOU | Texans |
| 2021 | 2021-10-03 | Texans 0 — 40 Bills | at BUF | Bills |
| 2019 | 2020-01-04 | Bills 19 — 22 Texans | at HOU | Texans playoffs |
| 2018 | 2018-10-14 | Bills 13 — 20 Texans | at HOU | Texans |
| 2015 | 2015-12-06 | Texans 21 — 30 Bills | at BUF | Bills |
| 2014 | 2014-09-28 | Bills 17 — 23 Texans | at HOU | Texans |
| 2012 | 2012-11-04 | Bills 9 — 21 Texans | at HOU | Texans |
| 2009 | 2009-11-01 | Texans 31 — 10 Bills | at BUF | Texans |
| 2006 | 2006-11-19 | Bills 24 — 21 Texans | at HOU | Bills |
Bills leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Josh Allen QB #17 | 79/119, 1039 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT |
| Rushing | James Cook III RB #4 | 70 CAR, 421 YDS, 3 TD |
| Josh Allen QB #17 | 33 CAR, 118 YDS, 7 TD | |
| Ray Davis RB #7 | 2 CAR, 6 YDS | |
| Receiving | Dalton Kincaid TE #86 | 15 REC, 270 YDS, 1 TD |
| Keon Coleman WR #0 | 14 REC, 217 YDS, 1 TD | |
| DJ Moore WR #2 | 12 REC, 178 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Khalil Shakir WR #10 | 15 REC, 176 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Dorian Williams LB #42 | 32 |
| Terrel Bernard LB #8 | 29 | |
| Cole Bishop S #24 | 25 | |
| Sacks | Greg Rousseau LB #15 | 6 |
| Bradley Chubb LB #9 | 1.5 | |
| Deone Walker DT #96 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | C.J. Gardner-Johnson S #22 | 1 |
| Dee Alford CB #23 | 1 |
Texans leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | C.J. Stroud QB #7 | 93/151, 1141 YDS, 5 TD |
| Kai Kroeger P #38 | 0/1, 0 YDS | |
| Rushing | David Montgomery RB #32 | 47 CAR, 127 YDS, 2 TD |
| Woody Marks RB #4 | 28 CAR, 87 YDS, 2 TD | |
| C.J. Stroud QB #7 | 9 CAR, 66 YDS | |
| Receiving | Dalton Schultz TE #86 | 21 REC, 214 YDS |
| Nico Collins WR #12 | 14 REC, 193 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Jaylin Noel WR #13 | 8 REC, 186 YDS | |
| Xavier Hutchinson WR #19 | 12 REC, 166 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Reed Blankenship S #6 | 34 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair LB #0 | 31 | |
| Jake Hansen LB #35 | 28 | |
| Sacks | Will Anderson Jr. DE #51 | 4.5 |
| Sheldon Rankins DT #98 | 2 | |
| Danielle Hunter DE #55 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Reed Blankenship S #6 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since signed elsewhere, been traded or retired still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game.