Wk 3 · 2026
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills — Sun, Sep 27
Sun, Sep 27 ·
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
· Fox FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
1:00pET
BUF -7 · total 50.5 DraftKings opened -3 · 4 toward BUF
Ratings differential BUF by 9.9
What is at stake
An AFC game between two divisions. It decides neither division, but conference record is the tiebreaker that follows head-to-head, and both of these are chasing the same 7 AFC playoff places. Division standings.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The Gridiron King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
1.7 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two rosters that have
been through a draft and a free-agency window since.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense
Defense
Points / game
Points allowed / game
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The Gridiron King’s 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats
The box-score store these rows are built from has not been produced for this league yet, so no preview carries points and yards for and against. The form, trend and series blocks below are built from this site’s own files and are not affected.
Chargers form
L 17-23vs DENL 23-30at SEAL 16-24at BUFL 14-26vs LVL 14-26vs ARI
2026 season
Bills form
W 37-34at LARL 26-29vs NEW 24-16vs LACW 41-31vs DETW 36-31at HOU
2026 season
Chargers this season
Straight up0-5 · 0% (5 games)
Against the spread0-4-1 · 0% (5 games)
Over / under1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Bills this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 9
| Opponent | Chargers | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders AFC | vs L 14-26 preview | at Wk 6 · scheduled preview |
| Broncos AFC | vs L 17-23 preview | at Wk 16 · scheduled preview |
| Chiefs AFC | at Wk 6 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Rams NFC | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview | at W 37-34 preview |
| Texans AFC | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | at W 36-31 preview |
| Ravens AFC | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| Jets AFC | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
| Patriots AFC | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview | vs L 26-29 preview |
| Dolphins AFC | at Wk 16 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Chargers leads 5–4 · Bills has won the last 3
9 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
6.0 points toward Chargers
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-09-27 | Chargers 16 — 24 Bills | at BUF | Bills |
| 2023 | 2023-12-23 | Bills 24 — 22 Chargers | at LAC | Bills |
| 2020 | 2020-11-29 | Chargers 17 — 27 Bills | at BUF | Bills |
| 2018 | 2018-09-16 | Chargers 31 — 20 Bills | at BUF | Chargers |
| 2017 | 2017-11-19 | Bills 24 — 54 Chargers | at LAC | Chargers |
| 2014 | 2014-09-21 | Chargers 22 — 10 Bills | at BUF | Chargers |
| 2011 | 2011-12-11 | Bills 10 — 37 Chargers | at LAC | Chargers |
| 2008 | 2008-10-19 | Chargers 14 — 23 Bills | at BUF | Bills |
| 2006 | 2006-12-03 | Chargers 24 — 21 Bills | at BUF | Chargers |
Chargers leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Justin Herbert QB #10 | 71/119, 816 YDS, 4 TD, 6 INT |
| Tre' Harris WR #9 | 0/1, 0 YDS | |
| Rushing | Omarion Hampton RB #8 | 59 CAR, 238 YDS, 3 TD |
| Keaton Mitchell RB #34 | 27 CAR, 124 YDS | |
| Justin Herbert QB #10 | 18 CAR, 88 YDS | |
| Receiving | Tre' Harris WR #9 | 13 REC, 209 YDS |
| Ladd McConkey WR #15 | 12 REC, 183 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Quentin Johnston WR #1 | 7 REC, 108 YDS | |
| Oronde Gadsden TE #86 | 9 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Daiyan Henley LB #0 | 26 |
| Del'Shawn Phillips LB #53 | 24 | |
| Derwin James Jr. S #3 | 21 | |
| Sacks | Khalil Mack LB #52 | 3 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu LB #45 | 2 | |
| Troy Dye LB #43 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Genesis Smith S #22 | 2 |
| Cam Hart CB #20 | 1 | |
| Tuli Tuipulotu LB #45 | 1 |
Bills leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Josh Allen QB #17 | 79/119, 1039 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT |
| Rushing | James Cook III RB #4 | 70 CAR, 421 YDS, 3 TD |
| Josh Allen QB #17 | 33 CAR, 118 YDS, 7 TD | |
| Ray Davis RB #7 | 2 CAR, 6 YDS | |
| Receiving | Dalton Kincaid TE #86 | 15 REC, 270 YDS, 1 TD |
| Keon Coleman WR #0 | 14 REC, 217 YDS, 1 TD | |
| DJ Moore WR #2 | 12 REC, 178 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Khalil Shakir WR #10 | 15 REC, 176 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Dorian Williams LB #42 | 32 |
| Terrel Bernard LB #8 | 29 | |
| Cole Bishop S #24 | 25 | |
| Sacks | Greg Rousseau LB #15 | 6 |
| Bradley Chubb LB #9 | 1.5 | |
| Deone Walker DT #96 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | C.J. Gardner-Johnson S #22 | 1 |
| Dee Alford CB #23 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since signed elsewhere, been traded or retired still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game.