Wk 15 · 2026
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders — Sun, Dec 20
Sun, Dec 20 ·
Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
· Fox
Weather
No forecast yet. This one is 65 days away. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
NFC South · 2-3
at
1:00pET
WSH -3.5 · total 46.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential ATL by 2.3
NFC East · 1-3-1
What is at stake
An NFC game between two divisions. It decides neither division, but conference record is the tiebreaker that follows head-to-head, and both of these are chasing the same 7 NFC playoff places. Division standings.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The Gridiron King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
1.7 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two rosters that have
been through a draft and a free-agency window since.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense
Defense
Points / game
Points allowed / game
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The Gridiron King’s 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats
The box-score store these rows are built from has not been produced for this league yet, so no preview carries points and yards for and against. The form, trend and series blocks below are built from this site’s own files and are not affected.
Falcons form
L 23-30vs BALW 45-24at NOW 35-14at GBL 3-34vs CARL 13-20at PIT
2026 season
Commanders form
T 27-27vs NYGL 13-30vs INDW 33-31vs SEAL 20-37at DALL 22-24at PHI
2026 season
Falcons this season
Straight up2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Commanders this season
Straight up1-3-1 · 25% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 3
| Opponent | Falcons | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers NFC | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview | at Wk 6 · scheduled preview |
| Bengals AFC | N Wk 9 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Vikings NFC | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview | at Wk 16 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Falcons leads 7–4 · Falcons won the last one
11 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
4.1 points toward Falcons
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-09-28 | Commanders 27 — 34 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2024 | 2024-12-29 | Falcons 24 — 30 Commanders | at WSH | Commanders |
| 2023 | 2023-10-15 | Commanders 24 — 16 Falcons | at ATL | Commanders |
| 2022 | 2022-11-27 | Falcons 13 — 19 Commanders | at WSH | Commanders |
| 2021 | 2021-10-03 | Commanders 34 — 30 Falcons | at ATL | Commanders |
| 2018 | 2018-11-04 | Falcons 38 — 14 Commanders | at WSH | Falcons |
| 2015 | 2015-10-11 | Commanders 19 — 25 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2013 | 2013-12-15 | Commanders 26 — 27 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2012 | 2012-10-07 | Falcons 24 — 17 Commanders | at WSH | Falcons |
| 2009 | 2009-11-08 | Commanders 17 — 31 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2006 | 2006-12-03 | Falcons 24 — 14 Commanders | at WSH | Falcons |
Falcons leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Michael Penix Jr. QB #9 | 33/45, 479 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| Cooper Rush QB #13 | 22/39, 229 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT | |
| Rushing | Bijan Robinson RB #7 | 85 CAR, 494 YDS, 4 TD |
| Brian Robinson Jr. RB #15 | 44 CAR, 194 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Cooper Rush QB #13 | 2 CAR, 20 YDS | |
| Receiving | Drake London WR #5 | 20 REC, 370 YDS |
| Bijan Robinson RB #7 | 14 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jahan Dotson WR #4 | 6 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. TE #8 | 5 REC, 67 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Xavier Watts S #31 | 24 |
| C.J. Henderson CB #26 | 23 | |
| Mike Hughes CB #21 | 19 | |
| Sacks | Za'Darius Smith DE #91 | 2.5 |
| Samson Ebukam DE #52 | 1.5 | |
| Cameron Thomas DE #99 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Xavier Watts S #31 | 1 |
Commanders leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Marcus Mariota QB #8 | 33/51, 340 YDS, 4 TD |
| Jayden Daniels QB #5 | 29/51, 260 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Rushing | Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB #22 | 56 CAR, 157 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jayden Daniels QB #5 | 12 CAR, 100 YDS | |
| Rachaad White RB #1 | 22 CAR, 100 YDS | |
| Receiving | Stefon Diggs WR #18 | 18 REC, 170 YDS, 3 TD |
| Terry McLaurin WR #17 | 10 REC, 141 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Antonio Williams WR #14 | 12 REC, 124 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Dyami Brown WR #6 | 7 REC, 86 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Jeremy Reaves S #39 | 29 |
| Amik Robertson CB #2 | 26 | |
| Sonny Styles LB #52 | 20 | |
| Sacks | Odafe Oweh LB #98 | 2 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson LB #45 | 1.5 | |
| Frankie Luvu LB #4 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Rasul Douglas CB #31 | 1 |
| Kain Medrano LB #56 | 1 | |
| Sonny Styles LB #52 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since signed elsewhere, been traded or retired still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game.