Wk 4 · 2026
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Sun, Oct 4
Sun, Oct 4 ·
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
· Fox FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
1:00pET
GB -3 · total 38.5 DraftKings opened +1.5 · 1.5 toward GB
Ratings differential TB by 0.1
What is at stake
An NFC game between two divisions. It decides neither division, but conference record is the tiebreaker that follows head-to-head, and both of these are chasing the same 7 NFC playoff places. Division standings.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The Gridiron King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
1.7 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two rosters that have
been through a draft and a free-agency window since.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense
Defense
Points / game
Points allowed / game
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The Gridiron King’s 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats
The box-score store these rows are built from has not been produced for this league yet, so no preview carries points and yards for and against. The form, trend and series blocks below are built from this site’s own files and are not affected.
Packers form
W 31-7vs CHIW 17-14at TBL 14-35vs ATLW 20-17at NYJL 22-39at MIN
2026 season
Buccaneers form
W 24-16at DALL 14-17vs GBL 16-23vs MINL 19-23vs CLEL 27-33at CIN
2026 season
Packers this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread1-3-1 · 25% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Buccaneers this season
Straight up1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Against the spread1-3-1 · 25% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 8
| Opponent | Packers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Vikings NFC | at L 22-39 preview | vs L 16-23 preview |
| Falcons NFC | vs L 14-35 preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| Bears NFC | vs W 31-7 preview | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
| Cowboys NFC | vs Wk 6 · scheduled preview | at W 24-16 preview |
| Lions NFC | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Panthers NFC | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
| Rams NFC | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 17 · scheduled preview |
| Saints NFC | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 15 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, the series is level at 5–5 · Packers won the last one
10 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
2.9 points toward Buccaneers
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-04 | Packers 17 — 14 Buccaneers | at TB | Packers |
| 2023 | 2023-12-17 | Buccaneers 34 — 20 Packers | at GB | Buccaneers |
| 2022 | 2022-09-25 | Packers 14 — 12 Buccaneers | at TB | Packers |
| 2020 | 2021-01-24 | Buccaneers 31 — 26 Packers | at GB | Buccaneers playoffs |
| 2020 | 2020-10-18 | Packers 10 — 38 Buccaneers | at TB | Buccaneers |
| 2017 | 2017-12-03 | Buccaneers 20 — 26 Packers | at GB | Packers |
| 2014 | 2014-12-21 | Packers 20 — 3 Buccaneers | at TB | Packers |
| 2011 | 2011-11-20 | Buccaneers 26 — 35 Packers | at GB | Packers |
| 2009 | 2009-11-08 | Packers 28 — 38 Buccaneers | at TB | Buccaneers |
| 2008 | 2008-09-28 | Packers 21 — 30 Buccaneers | at TB | Buccaneers |
Packers leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jordan Love QB #10 | 87/154, 1041 YDS, 8 TD, 3 INT |
| Rushing | MarShawn Lloyd RB #32 | 30 CAR, 81 YDS |
| Kaleb Johnson RB #26 | 20 CAR, 80 YDS | |
| Chris Brooks RB #30 | 15 CAR, 70 YDS | |
| Receiving | Christian Watson WR #9 | 20 REC, 331 YDS, 4 TD |
| Matthew Golden WR #0 | 18 REC, 274 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Tucker Kraft TE #85 | 15 REC, 148 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jonnu Smith TE #81 | 5 REC, 85 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Evan Williams S #33 | 36 |
| Edgerrin Cooper LB #56 | 30 | |
| Zaire Franklin LB #44 | 29 | |
| Sacks | Edgerrin Cooper LB #56 | 3 |
| Lukas Van Ness DE #90 | 2.5 | |
| Xavier McKinney S #29 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Xavier McKinney S #29 | 1 |
| Keisean Nixon CB #25 | 1 | |
| Evan Williams S #33 | 1 |
Buccaneers leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Baker Mayfield QB #6 | 61/96, 615 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT |
| Jalon Daniels QB #10 | 19/30, 148 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT | |
| Rushing | Bucky Irving RB #7 | 56 CAR, 241 YDS, 1 TD |
| Baker Mayfield QB #6 | 11 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jalon Daniels QB #10 | 9 CAR, 64 YDS | |
| Receiving | Cade Otton TE #88 | 15 REC, 157 YDS |
| Emeka Egbuka WR #2 | 15 REC, 154 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Chris Godwin Jr. WR #14 | 16 REC, 142 YDS | |
| Ted Hurst III WR #17 | 8 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Josiah Trotter LB #45 | 34 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. S #31 | 24 | |
| Alex Anzalone LB #34 | 22 | |
| Sacks | David Walker LB #51 | 2 |
| Alex Anzalone LB #34 | 1 | |
| A'Shawn Robinson DT #91 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | A'Shawn Robinson DT #91 | 1 |
| Josiah Trotter LB #45 | 1 | |
| Jacob Parrish CB #25 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since signed elsewhere, been traded or retired still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game.