The ten · Week 3

Switch to Predict and pick them, then copy the link and send it to someone who disagrees. Each game locks when it kicks off, so a card cannot be filled in after the fact, and compare picks will show you only the ones you split on.

Confidence points. In predict mode each game here carries a 1–10 box. Rank your ten and a wrong favorite costs what you said it was worth — your scorecard totals what you earned against what you staked. Leave them blank and nothing changes.

Did the rule pick good games? The ten finished 9.8 points apart on average; the other 6 games that week finished 7.3 apart. The rest of the week was closer, so the rule did not earn its keep here. 7 of 10 were one-score games against 5 of 6 elsewhere.

Upsets (6). The side the market did not favour won outright.

• Falcons beat Packers 35–14
• Browns beat Panthers 21–18
• Steelers beat Bengals 30–27
• Colts beat Texans 19–17
• Broncos beat Rams 30–26
• Bears beat Eagles 27–7

By arithmetic on the same board you can see, not by anyone's judgment of what matters. Each game scores for a close betting line, for being a division game (worth more than a conference game, because a division game is played twice a year and decides who goes to the playoffs), for how the two clubs have played so far, and for their efficiency ratings. A lopsided line scores nothing however good the favorite is. A game whose two clubs are not decided yet cannot be scored at all, and is left out. The top ten by that score make the card, in kickoff order.