The ten · Week 4

Switch to Predict and pick them, then copy the link and send it to someone who disagrees. Each game locks when it kicks off, so a card cannot be filled in after the fact, and compare picks will show you only the ones you split on.

Confidence points. In predict mode each game here carries a 1–10 box. Rank your ten and a wrong favorite costs what you said it was worth — your scorecard totals what you earned against what you staked. Leave them blank and nothing changes.

Did the rule pick good games? The ten finished 7.0 points apart on average; the other 6 games that week finished 8.3 apart. That is what the rule is for. 7 of 10 were one-score games against 4 of 6 elsewhere.

Upsets (6). The side the market did not favour won outright.

• Browns beat Steelers 27–24
• Giants beat Cardinals 36–24
• Jaguars beat Bengals 22–17
• Patriots beat Bills 29–26
• Panthers beat Lions 32–26
• Falcons beat Saints 45–24

By arithmetic on the same board you can see, not by anyone's judgment of what matters. Each game scores for a close betting line, for being a division game (worth more than a conference game, because a division game is played twice a year and decides who goes to the playoffs), for how the two clubs have played so far, and for their efficiency ratings. A lopsided line scores nothing however good the favorite is. A game whose two clubs are not decided yet cannot be scored at all, and is left out. The top ten by that score make the card, in kickoff order.