Wk 4 · 2026

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills — Sun, Oct 4

Sun, Oct 4 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY · CBS FINAL

Weather

No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.

New England Patriots

AFC East · 3-2

1:00pET

BUF -7 · total 49.5 DraftKings opened -3 · 4 toward BUF

Ratings differential BUF by 0.7

Buffalo Bills

AFC East · 4-1

What is at stake

An AFC East game. These two play each other twice a season, home and away, and when the AFC East finishes level it is the head-to-head result and then the division record that separate them — before any of the rest. Division standings.

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The Gridiron King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 1.7 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two rosters that have been through a draft and a free-agency window since.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Patriots: +5.7#3

Efficiency margin

Bills: +4.7#4

Patriots: +1.7#13

Offense

Bills: +6.0#1

Patriots: +4.0#3

Defense

Bills: -1.3#23

Patriots: 28.8

Points / game

Bills: 28.3

Patriots: 18.8

Points allowed / game

Bills: 21.5

Opponent-adjusted ratings from The Gridiron King’s 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats

The box-score store these rows are built from has not been produced for this league yet, so no preview carries points and yards for and against. The form, trend and series blocks below are built from this site’s own files and are not affected.

Patriots form

W 45-17vs LVW 29-26at BUFL 6-35at JAXW 20-3vs PITL 10-13at SEA

2026 season

Bills form

W 37-34at LARL 26-29vs NEW 24-16vs LACW 41-31vs DETW 36-31at HOU

2026 season

Patriots this season

Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)

Against the spread3-1-1 · 75% (5 games)

Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)

Bills this season

Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)

Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)

Over / under4-1 · 80% (5 games)

Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 10

Opponent	Patriots	Bills
Raiders AFC	vs W 45-17 preview	at Wk 6 · scheduled preview
Jets AFC	vs Wk 6 · scheduled preview	at Wk 10 · scheduled preview
Bears NFC	at Wk 7 · scheduled preview	vs Wk 15 · scheduled preview
Dolphins AFC	at Wk 8 · scheduled preview	vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview
Packers NFC	vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview	at Wk 14 · scheduled preview
Lions NFC	N Wk 10 · scheduled preview	vs W 41-31 preview
Chargers AFC	at Wk 12 · scheduled preview	vs W 24-16 preview
Vikings NFC	vs Wk 14 · scheduled preview	at Wk 9 · scheduled preview
Chiefs AFC	at Wk 15 · scheduled preview	vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview
Broncos AFC	vs Wk 17 · scheduled preview	at Wk 16 · scheduled preview

Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, Patriots leads 30–12 · Patriots won the last one

42 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 6.1 points toward Patriots

Yr	Date	Result	Site	Won
2026	2026-10-04	Patriots 29 — 26 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2025	2025-12-14	Bills 35 — 31 Patriots	at NE	Bills
2025	2025-10-05	Patriots 23 — 20 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2024	2025-01-05	Bills 16 — 23 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2024	2024-12-22	Patriots 21 — 24 Bills	at BUF	Bills
2023	2023-12-31	Patriots 21 — 27 Bills	at BUF	Bills
2023	2023-10-22	Bills 25 — 29 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2022	2023-01-08	Patriots 23 — 35 Bills	at BUF	Bills
2022	2022-12-01	Bills 24 — 10 Patriots	at NE	Bills
2021	2022-01-15	Patriots 17 — 47 Bills	at BUF	Bills playoffs
2021	2021-12-26	Bills 33 — 21 Patriots	at NE	Bills
2021	2021-12-06	Patriots 14 — 10 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2020	2020-12-28	Bills 38 — 9 Patriots	at NE	Bills
2020	2020-11-01	Patriots 21 — 24 Bills	at BUF	Bills
2019	2019-12-21	Bills 17 — 24 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2019	2019-09-29	Patriots 16 — 10 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2018	2018-12-23	Bills 12 — 24 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2018	2018-10-29	Patriots 25 — 6 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2017	2017-12-24	Bills 16 — 37 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2017	2017-12-03	Patriots 23 — 3 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2016	2016-10-30	Patriots 41 — 25 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2016	2016-10-02	Bills 16 — 0 Patriots	at NE	Bills
2015	2015-11-23	Bills 13 — 20 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2015	2015-09-20	Patriots 40 — 32 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2014	2014-12-28	Bills 17 — 9 Patriots	at NE	Bills
2014	2014-10-12	Patriots 37 — 22 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2013	2013-12-29	Bills 20 — 34 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2013	2013-09-08	Patriots 23 — 21 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2012	2012-11-11	Bills 31 — 37 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2012	2012-09-30	Patriots 52 — 28 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2011	2012-01-01	Bills 21 — 49 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2011	2011-09-25	Patriots 31 — 34 Bills	at BUF	Bills
2010	2010-12-26	Patriots 34 — 3 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2010	2010-09-26	Bills 30 — 38 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2009	2009-12-20	Patriots 17 — 10 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2009	2009-09-14	Bills 24 — 25 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2008	2008-12-28	Patriots 13 — 0 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2008	2008-11-09	Bills 10 — 20 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2007	2007-11-18	Patriots 56 — 10 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2007	2007-09-23	Bills 7 — 38 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2006	2006-10-22	Patriots 28 — 6 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2006	2006-09-10	Bills 17 — 19 Patriots	at NE	Patriots

Patriots leaders 2026 regular season

Passing	Drake Maye QB #10	73/117, 854 YDS, 4 TD, 7 INT
	Tommy DeVito QB #16	3/5, 30 YDS
Rushing	Rhamondre Stevenson RB #38	44 CAR, 163 YDS, 1 TD
	TreVeyon Henderson RB #32	38 CAR, 141 YDS, 1 TD
	Drake Maye QB #10	23 CAR, 136 YDS
Receiving	Mack Hollins WR #13	15 REC, 209 YDS
	Romeo Doubs WR #87	12 REC, 203 YDS, 2 TD
	Hunter Henry TE #85	12 REC, 133 YDS
	Rhamondre Stevenson RB #38	12 REC, 90 YDS

Defense

Tackles	Robert Spillane LB #14	29
	Christian Elliss LB #53	25
	Charles Woods CB #22	18
Sacks	Elijah Ponder LB #91	2.5
	Gabe Jacas LB #50	1.5
	Dre'Mont Jones DE #5	1
Interceptions	Marcus Jones CB #25	1
	Craig Woodson S #4	1
	Gabe Jacas LB #50	1

full roster and per-player history

Bills leaders 2026 regular season

Passing	Josh Allen QB #17	79/119, 1039 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT
Rushing	James Cook III RB #4	70 CAR, 421 YDS, 3 TD
	Josh Allen QB #17	33 CAR, 118 YDS, 7 TD
	Ray Davis RB #7	2 CAR, 6 YDS
Receiving	Dalton Kincaid TE #86	15 REC, 270 YDS, 1 TD
	Keon Coleman WR #0	14 REC, 217 YDS, 1 TD
	DJ Moore WR #2	12 REC, 178 YDS, 1 TD
	Khalil Shakir WR #10	15 REC, 176 YDS

Defense

Tackles	Dorian Williams LB #42	32
	Terrel Bernard LB #8	29
	Cole Bishop S #24	25
Sacks	Greg Rousseau LB #15	6
	Bradley Chubb LB #9	1.5
	Deone Walker DT #96	1
Interceptions	C.J. Gardner-Johnson S #22	1
	Dee Alford CB #23	1

full roster and per-player history

These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since signed elsewhere, been traded or retired still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game.