Wk 4 · 2026

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills — Sun, Oct 4

Sun, Oct 4 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY · CBS

Weather

No forecast yet. This one is 37 days away. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.

New England Patriots

AFC East · no games yet

1:00pET

BUF -3 · total 49.5 DraftKings

Ratings differential BUF by 3.3

Buffalo Bills

AFC East · no games yet

What is at stake

An AFC East game. These two play each other twice a season, home and away, and when the AFC East finishes level it is the head-to-head result and then the division record that separate them — before any of the rest. Division standings.

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The Gridiron King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 1.7 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two rosters that have been through a draft and a free-agency window since.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Patriots: +3.3#4

Efficiency margin

Bills: +4.9#2

Patriots: +1.9#7

Offense

Bills: +4.6#1

Patriots: +1.4#7

Defense

Bills: +0.2#14

Patriots: 28.8

Points / game

Bills: 28.3

Patriots: 18.8

Points allowed / game

Bills: 21.5

Opponent-adjusted ratings from The Gridiron King’s 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats

The box-score store these rows are built from has not been produced for this league yet, so no preview carries points and yards for and against. The form, trend and series blocks below are built from this site’s own files and are not affected.

Patriots form

No completed games on record.

Bills form

No completed games on record.

Patriots this season

No graded games yet this season. Lines are captured before kickoff and graded when a game goes final, so these records start at Week 1.

Bills this season

No graded games yet this season. Lines are captured before kickoff and graded when a game goes final, so these records start at Week 1.

Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 10

Opponent	Patriots	Bills
Raiders AFC	vs Wk 5 · scheduled preview	at Wk 6 · scheduled preview
Jets AFC	vs Wk 6 · scheduled preview	at Wk 10 · scheduled preview
Bears NFC	at Wk 7 · scheduled preview	vs Wk 15 · scheduled preview
Dolphins AFC	at Wk 8 · scheduled preview	vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview
Packers NFC	vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview	at Wk 14 · scheduled preview
Lions NFC	N Wk 10 · scheduled preview	vs Wk 2 · scheduled preview
Chargers AFC	at Wk 12 · scheduled preview	vs Wk 3 · scheduled preview
Vikings NFC	vs Wk 14 · scheduled preview	at Wk 9 · scheduled preview
Chiefs AFC	at Wk 15 · scheduled preview	vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview
Broncos AFC	vs Wk 17 · scheduled preview	at Wk 16 · scheduled preview

Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, Patriots leads 29–12 · Bills won the last one

41 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 6.2 points toward Patriots

Yr	Date	Result	Site	Won
2025	2025-12-14	Bills 35 — 31 Patriots	at NE	Bills
2025	2025-10-05	Patriots 23 — 20 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2024	2025-01-05	Bills 16 — 23 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2024	2024-12-22	Patriots 21 — 24 Bills	at BUF	Bills
2023	2023-12-31	Patriots 21 — 27 Bills	at BUF	Bills
2023	2023-10-22	Bills 25 — 29 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2022	2023-01-08	Patriots 23 — 35 Bills	at BUF	Bills
2022	2022-12-01	Bills 24 — 10 Patriots	at NE	Bills
2021	2022-01-15	Patriots 17 — 47 Bills	at BUF	Bills playoffs
2021	2021-12-26	Bills 33 — 21 Patriots	at NE	Bills
2021	2021-12-06	Patriots 14 — 10 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2020	2020-12-28	Bills 38 — 9 Patriots	at NE	Bills
2020	2020-11-01	Patriots 21 — 24 Bills	at BUF	Bills
2019	2019-12-21	Bills 17 — 24 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2019	2019-09-29	Patriots 16 — 10 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2018	2018-12-23	Bills 12 — 24 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2018	2018-10-29	Patriots 25 — 6 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2017	2017-12-24	Bills 16 — 37 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2017	2017-12-03	Patriots 23 — 3 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2016	2016-10-30	Patriots 41 — 25 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2016	2016-10-02	Bills 16 — 0 Patriots	at NE	Bills
2015	2015-11-23	Bills 13 — 20 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2015	2015-09-20	Patriots 40 — 32 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2014	2014-12-28	Bills 17 — 9 Patriots	at NE	Bills
2014	2014-10-12	Patriots 37 — 22 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2013	2013-12-29	Bills 20 — 34 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2013	2013-09-08	Patriots 23 — 21 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2012	2012-11-11	Bills 31 — 37 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2012	2012-09-30	Patriots 52 — 28 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2011	2012-01-01	Bills 21 — 49 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2011	2011-09-25	Patriots 31 — 34 Bills	at BUF	Bills
2010	2010-12-26	Patriots 34 — 3 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2010	2010-09-26	Bills 30 — 38 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2009	2009-12-20	Patriots 17 — 10 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2009	2009-09-14	Bills 24 — 25 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2008	2008-12-28	Patriots 13 — 0 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2008	2008-11-09	Bills 10 — 20 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2007	2007-11-18	Patriots 56 — 10 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2007	2007-09-23	Bills 7 — 38 Patriots	at NE	Patriots
2006	2006-10-22	Patriots 28 — 6 Bills	at BUF	Patriots
2006	2006-09-10	Bills 17 — 19 Patriots	at NE	Patriots

Patriots leaders 2025 regular season

Passing	Drake Maye QB #10	354/492, 4394 YDS, 31 TD, 8 INT
	Joshua Dobbs QB #6	7/10, 65 YDS
Rushing	TreVeyon Henderson RB #32	180 CAR, 911 YDS, 9 TD
	Rhamondre Stevenson RB #38	130 CAR, 603 YDS, 7 TD
	Drake Maye QB #10	103 CAR, 450 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving	Stefon Diggs WR #18	85 REC, 1013 YDS, 4 TD
	Hunter Henry TE #85	60 REC, 768 YDS, 7 TD
	Kayshon Boutte WR #88	33 REC, 551 YDS, 6 TD
	Mack Hollins WR #13	46 REC, 550 YDS, 2 TD

Defense

Tackles	Robert Spillane LB #14	97
	Christian Elliss LB #53	94
	Jack Gibbens LB #50	81
Sacks	Harold Landry III LB #2	8.5
	K'Lavon Chaisson LB #45	7.5
	Elijah Ponder LB #91	4
Interceptions	Jaylinn Hawkins S #21	4
	Marcus Jones CB #25	3
	Robert Spillane LB #14	2

full roster and per-player history

Bills leaders 2025 regular season

Passing	Josh Allen QB #17	319/460, 3668 YDS, 25 TD, 10 INT
	Mitchell Trubisky QB #10	25/35, 313 YDS, 4 TD
Rushing	James Cook III RB #4	309 CAR, 1621 YDS, 12 TD
	Josh Allen QB #17	112 CAR, 579 YDS, 14 TD
	Ray Davis RB #7	58 CAR, 275 YDS
Receiving	Khalil Shakir WR #10	72 REC, 719 YDS, 4 TD
	Dalton Kincaid TE #86	39 REC, 571 YDS, 5 TD
	Dawson Knox TE #88	36 REC, 417 YDS, 4 TD
	Keon Coleman WR #0	38 REC, 404 YDS, 4 TD

Defense

Tackles	Cole Bishop S #24	85
	Jordan Poyer S #21	70
	Matt Milano LB #58	67
Sacks	Greg Rousseau LB #15	7
	Joey Bosa DE #97	5
	Matt Milano LB #58	3.5
Interceptions	Cole Bishop S #24	3
	AJ Epenesa DE #57	2
	Christian Benford CB #47	2

full roster and per-player history

These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since signed elsewhere, been traded or retired still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game.