Wk 16 · 2026
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos — Fri, Dec 25
Fri, Dec 25 ·
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
· Netflix
Weather
No forecast yet. This one is 70 days away. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
AFC East · 4-1
at
4:30pET
BUF -1.5 · total 46.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential BUF by 0.8
AFC West · 4-2
What is at stake
An AFC game between two divisions. It decides neither division, but conference record is the tiebreaker that follows head-to-head, and both of these are chasing the same 7 AFC playoff places. Division standings.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The Gridiron King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
1.7 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two rosters that have
been through a draft and a free-agency window since.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense
Defense
Points / game
Points allowed / game
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The Gridiron King’s 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats
The box-score store these rows are built from has not been produced for this league yet, so no preview carries points and yards for and against. The form, trend and series blocks below are built from this site’s own files and are not affected.
Bills form
W 37-34at LARL 26-29vs NEW 24-16vs LACW 41-31vs DETW 36-31at HOU
2026 season
Broncos form
W 17-14vs SEAW 23-17at LACL 14-24at SFW 30-26vs LARW 20-13vs JAX
2026 season
Bills this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Broncos this season
Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Over / under1-5 · 17% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 7
| Opponent | Bills | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Chargers AFC | vs W 24-16 preview | at W 23-17 preview |
| Patriots AFC | vs L 26-29 preview | at Wk 17 · scheduled preview |
| Rams NFC | at W 37-34 preview | vs W 30-26 preview |
| Raiders AFC | at Wk 6 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Jets AFC | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview | at Wk 14 · scheduled preview |
| Dolphins AFC | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
| Chiefs AFC | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview | at L 10-31 preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Bills leads 6–4 · Broncos won the last one
10 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
10.0 points toward Bills
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026-01-17 | Bills 30 — 33 Broncos | at DEN | Broncos playoffs |
| 2024 | 2025-01-12 | Broncos 7 — 31 Bills | at BUF | Bills playoffs |
| 2023 | 2023-11-13 | Broncos 24 — 22 Bills | at BUF | Broncos |
| 2020 | 2020-12-19 | Bills 48 — 19 Broncos | at DEN | Bills |
| 2019 | 2019-11-24 | Broncos 3 — 20 Bills | at BUF | Bills |
| 2017 | 2017-09-24 | Broncos 16 — 26 Bills | at BUF | Bills |
| 2014 | 2014-12-07 | Bills 17 — 24 Broncos | at DEN | Broncos |
| 2011 | 2011-12-24 | Broncos 14 — 40 Bills | at BUF | Bills |
| 2008 | 2008-12-21 | Bills 30 — 23 Broncos | at DEN | Bills |
| 2007 | 2007-09-09 | Broncos 15 — 14 Bills | at BUF | Broncos |
Bills leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Josh Allen QB #17 | 79/119, 1039 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT |
| Rushing | James Cook III RB #4 | 70 CAR, 421 YDS, 3 TD |
| Josh Allen QB #17 | 33 CAR, 118 YDS, 7 TD | |
| Ray Davis RB #7 | 2 CAR, 6 YDS | |
| Receiving | Dalton Kincaid TE #86 | 15 REC, 270 YDS, 1 TD |
| Keon Coleman WR #0 | 14 REC, 217 YDS, 1 TD | |
| DJ Moore WR #2 | 12 REC, 178 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Khalil Shakir WR #10 | 15 REC, 176 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Dorian Williams LB #42 | 32 |
| Terrel Bernard LB #8 | 29 | |
| Cole Bishop S #24 | 25 | |
| Sacks | Greg Rousseau LB #15 | 6 |
| Bradley Chubb LB #9 | 1.5 | |
| Deone Walker DT #96 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | C.J. Gardner-Johnson S #22 | 1 |
| Dee Alford CB #23 | 1 |
Broncos leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Bo Nix QB #10 | 81/135, 819 YDS, 5 TD, 3 INT |
| Rushing | J.K. Dobbins RB #27 | 46 CAR, 161 YDS |
| RJ Harvey RB #12 | 12 CAR, 49 YDS | |
| Jonah Coleman RB #20 | 10 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Jaylen Waddle WR #17 | 16 REC, 185 YDS, 1 TD |
| Pat Bryant WR #13 | 9 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD | |
| RJ Harvey RB #12 | 20 REC, 132 YDS | |
| Courtland Sutton WR #14 | 9 REC, 86 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Alex Singleton LB #49 | 47 |
| Brandon Jones S #22 | 31 | |
| Talanoa Hufanga S #9 | 21 | |
| Sacks | Zach Allen DE #99 | 3 |
| Malcolm Roach DT #97 | 1 | |
| Eyioma Uwazurike DE #96 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Talanoa Hufanga S #9 | 2 |
| Brandon Jones S #22 | 1 | |
| Riley Moss CB #21 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since signed elsewhere, been traded or retired still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game.