Wk 6 · 2026
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons — Sun, Oct 18
Sun, Oct 18 ·
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
· Fox
Weather
This one is played indoors. There is nothing to forecast.
NFC North · 3-2
at
1:00pET
CHI -1.5 · total 51.5 DraftKings opened +3 · 1.5 toward ATL
Ratings differential CHI by 2.0
NFC South · 2-3
What is at stake
An NFC game between two divisions. It decides neither division, but conference record is the tiebreaker that follows head-to-head, and both of these are chasing the same 7 NFC playoff places. Division standings.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The Gridiron King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
1.7 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two rosters that have
been through a draft and a free-agency window since.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense
Defense
Points / game
Points allowed / game
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The Gridiron King’s 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats
The box-score store these rows are built from has not been produced for this league yet, so no preview carries points and yards for and against. The form, trend and series blocks below are built from this site’s own files and are not affected.
Bears form
L 7-31at GBW 23-12vs NYJW 27-7vs PHIL 3-9vs MINW 59-37at CAR
2026 season
Falcons form
L 23-30vs BALW 45-24at NOW 35-14at GBL 3-34vs CARL 13-20at PIT
2026 season
Bears this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Falcons this season
Straight up2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 6
| Opponent | Bears | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers NFC | at W 59-37 preview | vs L 3-34 preview |
| Vikings NFC | vs L 3-9 preview | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Packers NFC | at L 7-31 preview | at W 35-14 preview |
| Buccaneers NFC | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| Saints NFC | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at W 45-24 preview |
| Lions NFC | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, the series is level at 4–4 · Bears won the last one
8 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
4.8 points toward Bears
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2023-12-31 | Falcons 17 — 37 Bears | at CHI | Bears |
| 2022 | 2022-11-20 | Bears 24 — 27 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2020 | 2020-09-27 | Bears 30 — 26 Falcons | at ATL | Bears |
| 2017 | 2017-09-10 | Falcons 23 — 17 Bears | at CHI | Falcons |
| 2014 | 2014-10-12 | Bears 27 — 13 Falcons | at ATL | Bears |
| 2011 | 2011-09-11 | Falcons 12 — 30 Bears | at CHI | Bears |
| 2009 | 2009-10-18 | Bears 14 — 21 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2008 | 2008-10-12 | Bears 20 — 22 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
Bears leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Caleb Williams QB #18 | 36/55, 407 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| Tyson Bagent QB #17 | 30/43, 322 YDS, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Kyle Monangai RB #25 | 60 CAR, 324 YDS, 3 TD |
| D'Andre Swift RB #4 | 69 CAR, 311 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Caleb Williams QB #18 | 15 CAR, 107 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Receiving | Rome Odunze WR #15 | 14 REC, 233 YDS |
| Kalif Raymond WR #14 | 21 REC, 220 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Luther Burden III WR #10 | 19 REC, 219 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Colston Loveland TE #84 | 11 REC, 91 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Dillon Thieneman S #31 | 30 |
| Devin Bush LB #12 | 19 | |
| Tyrique Stevenson CB #29 | 18 | |
| Sacks | Dayo Odeyingbo DE #55 | 3 |
| Montez Sweat DE #98 | 2 | |
| Austin Booker DE #94 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | T.J. Edwards LB #53 | 1 |
| Malik Muhammad CB #24 | 1 | |
| Dillon Thieneman S #31 | 1 |
Falcons leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Michael Penix Jr. QB #9 | 33/45, 479 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| Cooper Rush QB #13 | 22/39, 229 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT | |
| Rushing | Bijan Robinson RB #7 | 85 CAR, 494 YDS, 4 TD |
| Brian Robinson Jr. RB #15 | 44 CAR, 194 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Cooper Rush QB #13 | 2 CAR, 20 YDS | |
| Receiving | Drake London WR #5 | 20 REC, 370 YDS |
| Bijan Robinson RB #7 | 14 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jahan Dotson WR #4 | 6 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. TE #8 | 5 REC, 67 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Xavier Watts S #31 | 24 |
| C.J. Henderson CB #26 | 23 | |
| Mike Hughes CB #21 | 19 | |
| Sacks | Za'Darius Smith DE #91 | 2.5 |
| Samson Ebukam DE #52 | 1.5 | |
| Cameron Thomas DE #99 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Xavier Watts S #31 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since signed elsewhere, been traded or retired still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game.