Wk 16 · 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons — Sun, Dec 27
Sun, Dec 27 ·
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Weather
This one is played indoors. There is nothing to forecast.
NFC South · 1-4
at
TBDET
TB -1.5 · total 45.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential ATL by 3.6
NFC South · 2-3
What is at stake
An NFC South game. These two play each other twice a season, home and away, and when the NFC South finishes level it is the head-to-head result and then the division record that separate them — before any of the rest. Division standings. Flex Game: 12/26 or 12/27.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The Gridiron King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
1.7 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two rosters that have
been through a draft and a free-agency window since.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense
Defense
Points / game
Points allowed / game
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The Gridiron King’s 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats
The box-score store these rows are built from has not been produced for this league yet, so no preview carries points and yards for and against. The form, trend and series blocks below are built from this site’s own files and are not affected.
Buccaneers form
W 24-16at DALL 14-17vs GBL 16-23vs MINL 19-23vs CLEL 27-33at CIN
2026 season
Falcons form
L 23-30vs BALW 45-24at NOW 35-14at GBL 3-34vs CARL 13-20at PIT
2026 season
Buccaneers this season
Straight up1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Against the spread1-3-1 · 25% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Falcons this season
Straight up2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 10
| Opponent | Buccaneers | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Bengals AFC | at L 27-33 preview | N Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
| Browns AFC | vs L 19-23 preview | at Wk 14 · scheduled preview |
| Vikings NFC | vs L 16-23 preview | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Packers NFC | vs L 14-17 preview | at W 35-14 preview |
| Steelers AFC | vs Wk 6 · scheduled preview | at L 13-20 preview |
| Panthers NFC | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview | vs L 3-34 preview |
| Bears NFC | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 6 · scheduled preview |
| Lions NFC | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
| Ravens AFC | at Wk 14 · scheduled preview | vs L 23-30 preview |
| Saints NFC | vs Wk 15 · scheduled preview | at W 45-24 preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Falcons leads 23–17 · Falcons won the last one
40 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
0.3 points toward Falcons
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-12-11 | Falcons 29 — 28 Buccaneers | at TB | Falcons |
| 2025 | 2025-09-07 | Buccaneers 23 — 20 Falcons | at ATL | Buccaneers |
| 2024 | 2024-10-27 | Falcons 31 — 26 Buccaneers | at TB | Falcons |
| 2024 | 2024-10-03 | Buccaneers 30 — 36 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2023 | 2023-12-10 | Buccaneers 29 — 25 Falcons | at ATL | Buccaneers |
| 2023 | 2023-10-22 | Falcons 16 — 13 Buccaneers | at TB | Falcons |
| 2022 | 2023-01-08 | Buccaneers 17 — 30 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2022 | 2022-10-09 | Falcons 15 — 21 Buccaneers | at TB | Buccaneers |
| 2021 | 2021-12-05 | Buccaneers 30 — 17 Falcons | at ATL | Buccaneers |
| 2021 | 2021-09-19 | Falcons 25 — 48 Buccaneers | at TB | Buccaneers |
| 2020 | 2021-01-03 | Falcons 27 — 44 Buccaneers | at TB | Buccaneers |
| 2020 | 2020-12-20 | Buccaneers 31 — 27 Falcons | at ATL | Buccaneers |
| 2019 | 2019-12-29 | Falcons 28 — 22 Buccaneers | at TB | Falcons |
| 2019 | 2019-11-24 | Buccaneers 35 — 22 Falcons | at ATL | Buccaneers |
| 2018 | 2018-12-30 | Falcons 34 — 32 Buccaneers | at TB | Falcons |
| 2018 | 2018-10-14 | Buccaneers 29 — 34 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2017 | 2017-12-18 | Falcons 24 — 21 Buccaneers | at TB | Falcons |
| 2017 | 2017-11-26 | Buccaneers 20 — 34 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2016 | 2016-11-03 | Falcons 43 — 28 Buccaneers | at TB | Falcons |
| 2016 | 2016-09-11 | Buccaneers 31 — 24 Falcons | at ATL | Buccaneers |
| 2015 | 2015-12-06 | Falcons 19 — 23 Buccaneers | at TB | Buccaneers |
| 2015 | 2015-11-01 | Buccaneers 23 — 20 Falcons | at ATL | Buccaneers |
| 2014 | 2014-11-09 | Falcons 27 — 17 Buccaneers | at TB | Falcons |
| 2014 | 2014-09-18 | Buccaneers 14 — 56 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2013 | 2013-11-17 | Falcons 28 — 41 Buccaneers | at TB | Buccaneers |
| 2013 | 2013-10-20 | Buccaneers 23 — 31 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2012 | 2012-12-30 | Buccaneers 22 — 17 Falcons | at ATL | Buccaneers |
| 2012 | 2012-11-25 | Falcons 24 — 23 Buccaneers | at TB | Falcons |
| 2011 | 2012-01-01 | Buccaneers 24 — 45 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2011 | 2011-09-25 | Falcons 13 — 16 Buccaneers | at TB | Buccaneers |
| 2010 | 2010-12-05 | Falcons 28 — 24 Buccaneers | at TB | Falcons |
| 2010 | 2010-11-07 | Buccaneers 21 — 27 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2009 | 2010-01-03 | Falcons 20 — 10 Buccaneers | at TB | Falcons |
| 2009 | 2009-11-29 | Buccaneers 17 — 20 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2008 | 2008-12-14 | Buccaneers 10 — 13 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
| 2008 | 2008-09-14 | Falcons 9 — 24 Buccaneers | at TB | Buccaneers |
| 2007 | 2007-12-16 | Falcons 3 — 37 Buccaneers | at TB | Buccaneers |
| 2007 | 2007-11-18 | Buccaneers 31 — 7 Falcons | at ATL | Buccaneers |
| 2006 | 2006-12-10 | Falcons 17 — 6 Buccaneers | at TB | Falcons |
| 2006 | 2006-09-17 | Buccaneers 3 — 14 Falcons | at ATL | Falcons |
Buccaneers leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Baker Mayfield QB #6 | 61/96, 615 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT |
| Jalon Daniels QB #10 | 19/30, 148 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT | |
| Rushing | Bucky Irving RB #7 | 56 CAR, 241 YDS, 1 TD |
| Baker Mayfield QB #6 | 11 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jalon Daniels QB #10 | 9 CAR, 64 YDS | |
| Receiving | Cade Otton TE #88 | 15 REC, 157 YDS |
| Emeka Egbuka WR #2 | 15 REC, 154 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Chris Godwin Jr. WR #14 | 16 REC, 142 YDS | |
| Ted Hurst III WR #17 | 8 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Josiah Trotter LB #45 | 34 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. S #31 | 24 | |
| Alex Anzalone LB #34 | 22 | |
| Sacks | David Walker LB #51 | 2 |
| Alex Anzalone LB #34 | 1 | |
| A'Shawn Robinson DT #91 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | A'Shawn Robinson DT #91 | 1 |
| Josiah Trotter LB #45 | 1 | |
| Jacob Parrish CB #25 | 1 |
Falcons leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Michael Penix Jr. QB #9 | 33/45, 479 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| Cooper Rush QB #13 | 22/39, 229 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT | |
| Rushing | Bijan Robinson RB #7 | 85 CAR, 494 YDS, 4 TD |
| Brian Robinson Jr. RB #15 | 44 CAR, 194 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Cooper Rush QB #13 | 2 CAR, 20 YDS | |
| Receiving | Drake London WR #5 | 20 REC, 370 YDS |
| Bijan Robinson RB #7 | 14 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jahan Dotson WR #4 | 6 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. TE #8 | 5 REC, 67 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Xavier Watts S #31 | 24 |
| C.J. Henderson CB #26 | 23 | |
| Mike Hughes CB #21 | 19 | |
| Sacks | Za'Darius Smith DE #91 | 2.5 |
| Samson Ebukam DE #52 | 1.5 | |
| Cameron Thomas DE #99 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Xavier Watts S #31 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since signed elsewhere, been traded or retired still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game.